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probability
0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8Updated 25 Oct 2026, 03:05 UTC
One tap: the bot follows this wallet for you and sends its larger trades (currently $50 or more) as messages.
probability is a Polymarket wallet tracked by Sharps. It holds 250 open positions worth $104,495; the largest is Yes on Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden.
Best open call: Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden, bought at 15.7¢, now 75.5¢, +$6,701 unrealised.
7d profit
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Not on this week's board
7d volume
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Edge —
Open positions
250
worth $104,495
Open positions
scaled to each market| Market | Shares | Entry → now | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister…Yes · Magdalena Andersson be the next Pri… and related | 11,271 | 15.7¢ → 75.5¢ | +$6,701 |
| Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' ChampionYes · Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion | 6,142 | 95.5¢ → 98.4¢ | −$1,705 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian preside…Yes · Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazi… and related | 5,642 | 85.5¢ → 78.6¢ | −$537.64 |
| Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'OrNo · Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or and related | 13,714 | 31.4¢ → 29.4¢ | +$1,840 |
| Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'OrYes · Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or and related | 30,305 | 31.8¢ → 13.1¢ | −$5,733 |
| The Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in…No · The Democrats win the Tennessee Sen… and related | 2,632 | 94.2¢ → 96.2¢ | +$52.56 |
| Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'OrYes · Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or and related | 14,239 | 16.9¢ → 16.4¢ | +$1,382 |
| Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Elec…Yes · Xavier Becerra win the California G… and related | 2,149 | 95.5¢ → 97.1¢ | +$35.12 |
| Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of S…Yes · Magdalena Andersson be the next Pri… and related | 10,571 | 3.8¢ → 18.6¢ | +$1,901 |
| The Democrats win the Tennessee governor race i…No · The Democrats win the Tennessee gov… and related | 2,050 | 96.2¢ → 96.0¢ | −$5.23 |
| The Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race…No · The Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race… | 1,933 | 96.8¢ → 98.4¢ | +$30.83 |
| The New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL leagu…No · The New England Patriots win the 20… and related | 1,814 | 96.2¢ → 96.9¢ | −$99.51 |
Where the money is
- Magdalena Andersson be the next Pri… and related11% of open$10,976
- Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or and related10% of open$10,411
- Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion6% of open$6,040
- The New England Patriots win the 20… and related5% of open$5,556
- Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazi… and related5% of open$4,961
- The Democrats win the Tennessee Sen… and related4% of open$3,732
- Manchester City finish in the top 6… and related3% of open$3,215
- The Democrats win the Tennessee gov… and related3% of open$3,064
- Everything else · 110 markets54% of open$56,540
Nearby on the leaderboard
- #1 this weeke46m3+$1,583,710
- #2 this weekaHjCz+$1,110,702
- #3 this weekBreakTheBank+$1,101,301
- #4 this weekbalthazar+$1,015,619
Recent fills
No alerts from these fills: nobody follows this wallet on Telegram yet.