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Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177Updated 30 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC
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Arbguy is a Polymarket wallet tracked by Sharps. It holds 24 open positions worth $180,668; the largest is Yes on The U.S. invade Iran before 2027, 15% of the book. Its largest recent fill was $2,181.

Best open call: Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bought at 0.7¢, now 1.3¢, +$10,279 unrealised.

7d profit

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Not on this week's board

7d volume

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Edge —

Open positions

24

worth $180,668

Also sitting on 6 settled positions that lost $33,694, not yet cleared. Not counted above.

Open positions

scaled to each market
MarketSharesEntry → nowUnrealised
The U.S. invade Iran before 2027Yes · The U.S. invade Iran before 2027155,44522.6¢ → 17.5¢−$13,442
The Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 20…Yes · The Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 20…73,69644.5¢ → 30.5¢−$10,358
Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presiden…Yes · Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democra… and related1,616,6970.7¢ → 1.3¢+$10,279
The Republican Party control the Senate after t…Yes · The Republican Party control the Se… and related57,48648.2¢ → 31.5¢−$9,191
The Democratic Party control the House after th…Yes · The Democratic Party control the House after th…19,56583.0¢ → 92.5¢−$786.55
Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidenti…Yes · Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democra… and related892,9451.3¢ → 1.7¢+$3,241
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31No · US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3152,89724.0¢ → 22.8¢−$661.21
The Iranian regime fall before 2027Yes · The Iranian regime fall before 2027155,24311.0¢ → 6.5¢−$9,016
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House26,63841.0¢ → 26.5¢−$3,862
Samuel Alito announce his retirement by Decembe…Yes · Samuel Alito announce his retirement by Decembe…49,96387.0¢ → 14.0¢−$36,475
The Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026No · The Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 202617,79034.0¢ → 34.0¢+$0.02
Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidenti…Yes · Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democra… and related106,7085.1¢ → 5.1¢+$32.33

Where the money is

  • Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democra… and related23% of open$41,693
  • The U.S. invade Iran before 202715% of open$27,203
  • The Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 20…12% of open$22,477
  • The Republican Party control the Se… and related12% of open$22,139
  • The Democratic Party control the House after th…10% of open$18,098
  • US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 317% of open$12,034
  • The Iranian regime fall before 20276% of open$10,091
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House4% of open$7,059
  • Everything else · 12 markets11% of open$19,875

Nearby on the leaderboard

Recent fills

TimeSideMarketSharesPriceAmount
19 Oct, 17:42 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 222,68121.1¢$565.70
19 Oct, 17:42 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 227,51921.1¢$1,586
19 Oct, 17:16 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 225,35231.5¢$1,686
19 Oct, 17:15 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 2244531.5¢$140.16
19 Oct, 17:12 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 223,08031.5¢$970.20
19 Oct, 17:12 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 221,32331.5¢$416.73
16 Oct, 19:48 UTCSell YesThe Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Oc…19,2650.1¢$18.30
16 Oct, 19:48 UTCSell YesThe Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Oc…19,2650.3¢$54.91
16 Oct, 19:47 UTCSell YesThe Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct…19,2650.3¢$54.91
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 319,08724.0¢$2,181
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3134.1424.0¢$8.19
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3134.3424.0¢$8.24
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3114924.0¢$35.76
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 311.4524.0¢$0.35
16 Oct, 19:26 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 317,77724.0¢$1,866
16 Oct, 19:23 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3121324.0¢$51.12
16 Oct, 19:12 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 316.5824.0¢$1.58
16 Oct, 19:07 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 3149624.0¢$119.05
16 Oct, 18:41 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 311024.0¢$2.40
16 Oct, 18:41 UTCBuy NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 311024.0¢$2.40

No alerts from these fills: nobody follows this wallet on Telegram yet.

Data from Polymarket's public API. Sharps is not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment advice.

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