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lug
0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e
lug is a Polymarket wallet tracked by Sharps. It holds 61 open positions worth $120,711; the largest is No on The U.S. invade Iran before 2027, 15% of the book.
Best open call: Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals, bought at 10.8¢, now 56.0¢, +$13,464 unrealised.
7d profit
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Not on this week's board
7d volume
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Edge —
Open positions
61
worth $120,711
Also sitting on 98 settled positions that lost $211,153, not yet cleared. Not counted above.
Open positions
scaled to each market| Market | Shares | Entry → now | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|
| The U.S. invade Iran before 2027No · The U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | 21,794 | 76.1¢ → 84.5¢ | +$5,148 |
| Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA FinalsYes · Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals | 28,647 | 10.8¢ → 56.0¢ | +$13,464 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 20…No · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 20… | 15,000 | 80.4¢ → 77.5¢ | −$429.91 |
| The Democratic Party control the Senate after t…Yes · The Democratic Party control the Senate after t… | 8,477 | 47.0¢ → 64.5¢ | +$1,634 |
| Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026No · Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026 | 6,875 | 74.5¢ → 74.5¢ | +$17.69 |
| Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Googl…No · Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Googl… | 4,631 | 90.8¢ → 93.1¢ | +$196.67 |
| Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral e…Yes · Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral e… | 8,000 | 50.5¢ → 50.8¢ | +$24.01 |
| The Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in…No · The Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in… | 5,000 | 58.0¢ → 69.5¢ | +$567.98 |
| The Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026Yes · The Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026 | 4,949 | 52.3¢ → 63.5¢ | +$832.20 |
| No one announced as next James BondNo · No one announced as next James Bond | 4,537 | 78.6¢ → 67.0¢ | −$943.75 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Gro…Dplus KIA · LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Gro… | 4,918 | 61.0¢ → 61.5¢ | +$24.59 |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Wo…Karmine Corp · LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Wo… | 8,824 | 34.0¢ → 33.5¢ | −$44.12 |
Where the money is
- The U.S. invade Iran before 202715% of open$18,416
- Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals13% of open$16,042
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 20…10% of open$11,625
- The Democratic Party control the Senate after t…5% of open$5,467
- Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 20264% of open$5,122
- Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democrati… and related4% of open$4,418
- Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Googl…4% of open$4,312
- Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral e…3% of open$4,068
- Everything else · 40 markets42% of open$51,241
Recent fills
| Time | Side | Market | Shares | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:32 UTC | Buy Yes | James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom… | 2.3 | 2.5¢ | $0.06 |
| 05:31 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 860 | 79.9¢ | $692.92 |
| 05:28 UTC | Buy Yes | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–… | 5.85 | 75.0¢ | $4.39 |
| 05:27 UTC | Buy No | "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the indep… | 90 | 69.0¢ | $62.87 |
| 05:26 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 122 | 73.0¢ | $89.03 |
| 05:23 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 237 | 62.0¢ | $146.84 |
| 05:23 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 263 | 62.0¢ | $163.16 |
| 05:22 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 478 | 55.0¢ | $262.77 |
| 05:22 UTC | Buy No | "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–… | 22.22 | 55.0¢ | $12.22 |
| 05:13 UTC | Buy No | Alberta vote for independence in 2026 | 197 | 96.7¢ | $190.07 |
| 00:30 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 576 | 61.0¢ | $351.14 |
| 00:29 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 7.69 | 61.0¢ | $4.69 |
| 00:18 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 128 | 61.0¢ | $78.21 |
| 00:12 UTC | Buy Commanders | Spread: 49ers (-7.5) | 53 | 53.0¢ | $28.09 |
| 00:11 UTC | Buy Commanders | Spread: 49ers (-7.5) | 69.36 | 53.0¢ | $36.76 |
| 00:11 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 25.64 | 61.0¢ | $15.64 |
| 00:00 UTC | Buy Under | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 54.5 | 9 | 59.0¢ | $5.31 |
| 19 Oct, 23:45 UTC | Buy Under | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 54.5 | 9 | 59.0¢ | $5.31 |
| 19 Oct, 23:44 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 5 | 61.0¢ | $3.05 |
| 19 Oct, 23:38 UTC | Buy Dplus KIA | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 39 | 61.0¢ | $23.79 |
No alerts from these fills: nobody follows this wallet on Telegram yet.